The Days Of Mega-Riches In Music Are OverHere’s what David Bowie wrote in a 2002 New York Times article:
“The absolute transformation of everything that we ever thought about music will take place within ten years, and nothing is going to be able to stop it. I see absolutely no point in pretending that it’s not going to happen. I’m fully confident that copyright, for instance, will no longer exist in ten years, and authorship and intellectual property is in for such a bashing. Music itself is going to become like running water or electricity. […] So it’s like, just take advantage of these last few years because none of this is ever going to happen again. You’d better be prepared for doing a lot of touring because that’s really the only unique situation that’s going to be left. It’s terribly exciting. But on the other hand it doesn’t matter if you think it’s exciting or not; it’s what’s going to happen…”
How prophetic.
That was back in 2002; which seems like eons ago. Everything Bowie states in that excerpt is happening. To me, the part that really jumps out is where he states that you need to be prepared for lots of touring because it’s going to be the only unique situation left. I’ve mentioned that point several times before. What it means is the end of the record era and the beginning of…well, who knows? But it’s going to be better than the record era for just about everyone; except of course the record labels and the few mega stars at the very top who got very, very rich. But right now, so much is in flux and it’s tough to say with certainty what the music business will look like in 10 years.
But there are some general predictions that can be made. One statement I can make with full conviction is this: The days of amassing mega-riches in the music industry are pretty much done. At least for the bands, artists and managers.
The big money will be made by the companies that take advantage of the abundant flow of music everywhere and organize it into coherent systems so that the rest of us can make sense of it. Lots of these will be tech companies like Apple and many smaller players like Smule, which creates apps. There’s going to be tons of these little companies springing up to take advantage of the new landscape.
It’s just the creators of content who, for the most part, won’t be getting super rich. We’re not going to see the creation of superstars on the level of Michael Jackson, Madonna or Mariah Carey anymore.
The reason is simple. People have too many choices today; not just in music, but in all forms of entertainment. And there’s a limited amount of money and time to go around. The rich mega-star was an aberration of the late industrial era. It was made possible because of a simple formula. You write a song that’s unique, you register it, you exploit it and you make gobs of money. You made it by selling music on millions of physical products called CDs.
But that’s not all. You also made tons of money off of your exclusivity through licensing and sponsorship. And that exclusivity was made possible by the high barrier of entry into the record business.
Now that business has crumbled like a sand castle. And the floodgates have opened for everyone with a basement studio and some gumption. But the rules of economics state that the greater the supply of something and the lower it’s relative demand, the lower the value.
More people in the music industry means more mouths to feed. So everybody gets a smaller piece of the overall music industry pie.
Whether you resent that or welcome it will depend on your view of money and creativity. If you’re out to get super rich in the music business, you’ve entered at the wrong time in history; and you’re in for a rude awakening. If you’re in it to do what you believe God made you to do, then you may very well end up happy.
The music industry today suits people who believe that life isn’t just about money. It’s for people who believe that you can make a very decent living doing something that you love and which creates value for society.
Ultimately, we’re all better off this way because society inherits a richer tapestry of artistic creativity. This is how music has existed in most of the world throughout most periods in history. It’s what music was meant to be. I say embrace it.
December 4th, 2009 at 11:12 am
WOW! This is a scary message. For those of us who had high hopes that when we made a CD we were done, and lots of money would roll in. I agree though. But I also think that there is a cycle to it all. Right now, every guy with a guitar and a computer is making songs. But that doesn’t mean that they are all ‘good’ songs. I think that there is some ’shaking out’ that will happen over the next several years, and there will still be heros to follow. The ones that shine above the rest, not because they are terrific marketers, but because they have the best music. I’ve heard some stuff that makes my hair stand up (and I don’t have very much hair!). I think that eventually the ones that put out bad music will find a small following, but there has to be the ones that take the lead and encourage us to become musicians. I remember when the Beatles first hit the shores. All of a sudden, every kid I knew (including me) wanted a guitar. That feeling was driven because the music was wonderful. With the Quantity of music that is out there, it makes it harder to find them, maybe. But we still need those heros to follow. It will come.
By the way, Rock and Roll is just a fad. I just had to say that!
December 4th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
Good post, point well taken.
With the possibility to now record in your basement or your bedroom, the numbers of people who now record pursuing that all mighty dollar, have become staggering. As with any band wagon on which people jump, there will eventually come a time when that wagon hits a bump and only the most securely braced will fall off.
Of the estimated 250,000 new releases every year, only a thousand (that’s 1,000) of them will ever sell more than 1,000 copies. This applies to a combination of every genre that you can think of, Pop, R&B, Hip-hop, Jazz, country, etc.
December 5th, 2009 at 2:39 am
“If you’re out to get super rich in the music business, you’ve entered at the wrong time in history; and you’re in for a rude awakening. If you’re in it to do what you believe God made you to do, then you may very well end up happy.”
That’s very profound. There are a hundred reason why music will never make me rich, and probably won’t make me any money at all. But the beauty of the internet-driven revolution in music making is that I now have a conduit to get my music out to the world, and every time I hear from someone who was somehow edified by it, I feel very fulfilled indeed.